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Difference between revisions of "User:The Doctor/Series 71 Predictions"

From Countdown
m (→‎Hypotheses)
Line 9: Line 9:
 
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]    |9|941|w}}
 
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]    |9|941|w}}
 
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]          |8|954}}
 
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]          |8|954}}
−
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]        |8|844|w}}
+
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]        |8|922}}
−
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]        |8|832|w}}
+
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]        |9|922|w}}
 
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    |9|892|w}}
 
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    |9|892|w}}
 
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]]      |7|689}}
 
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]]      |7|689}}
Line 20: Line 20:
 
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]]          ||116.778|w}}
 
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]]          ||116.778|w}}
 
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]          |Up 1|106}}
 
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]          |Up 1|106}}
−
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]         |Up 1|105.5|w}}
+
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]     |Down 1|104.556|w}}
−
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]     |Down 2|104.556|w}}
+
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]         ||102.444}}
−
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]        ||104|w}}
+
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]        ||102.444|w}}
 
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    ||99.111|w}}
 
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    ||99.111|w}}
 
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]]        |Up 1|88.375}}
 
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]]        |Up 1|88.375}}
Line 43: Line 43:
 
{{Seed table}}
 
{{Seed table}}
 
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]]          ||91.710%|w}}
 
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]]          ||91.710%|w}}
−
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]         |Up 3|84.211%|w}}
+
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]         |Up 1|83.538%}}
−
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]         ||83.538%}}
+
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]         |Up 2|83.063%|w}}
−
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]        ||81.942%|w}}
+
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]        ||80.035%}}
 
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    |Up 1|77.836%|w}}
 
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    |Up 1|77.836%|w}}
 
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]    |Down 4|77.512%|w}}
 
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]    |Down 4|77.512%|w}}
Line 51: Line 51:
 
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]]      |Down 1|59.602%}}
 
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]]      |Down 1|59.602%}}
 
{{seed table end}}
 
{{seed table end}}
 +
===Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Normal and Percentage of Max===
 +
{| class="episode_table"
 +
|-
 +
! Normal
 +
! Percentage
 +
! Name
 +
! d
 +
! d x d
 +
|-
 +
! 1
 +
! 1
 +
! [[Dan McColm]]
 +
! 0
 +
! 0
 +
|-
 +
! 2
 +
! 6
 +
! [[Antionette Ryan]]
 +
! 4
 +
! 16
 +
|-
 +
! 3
 +
! 2
 +
! [[Tricia Pay]]
 +
! 1
 +
! 1
 +
|-
 +
! 4
 +
! 4
 +
! [[Mark Davies]]
 +
! 0
 +
! 0
 +
|-
 +
! 5
 +
! 3
 +
! [[George Ford]]
 +
! 2
 +
! 4
 +
|-
 +
! 6
 +
! 5
 +
! [[Lawrence Killen]]
 +
! 1
 +
! 1
 +
|-
 +
! 7
 +
! 8
 +
! [[David Stanford]]
 +
! 1
 +
! 1
 +
|-
 +
! 8
 +
! 7
 +
! [[Paul Worsley]]
 +
! 1
 +
! 1
 +
|-
 +
! 8
 +
! COUNT
 +
! 1 - ((6 x 24))/(8 x ((8 x 8) - 1))) = 0.714
 +
! SUM
 +
! 24
 +
|}
 +
 +
There is a strong positive correlation between the normal seeds and the seeds adjudged by the percentage of the maximum gained. On a scatter graph with a linear trendline, those below it are, in theory, better than their seed suggests, and vice versa: McColm, Pay, Davies, Ford, and Killen are underrated; Worsley is correctly rated; Ryan and Stanford are overrated.
 +
 
==Predictions==
 
==Predictions==
 
===Hypotheses===
 
===Hypotheses===
Line 80: Line 146:
 
| 1 = [[Dan McColm]] | q1w = 1         
 
| 1 = [[Dan McColm]] | q1w = 1         
 
| 8 = [[Paul Worsley]]       
 
| 8 = [[Paul Worsley]]       
−
| 5 = [[George Ford]]      
+
| 5 = [[George Ford]] | q4w = 5     
 
| 4 = [[Mark Davies]]         
 
| 4 = [[Mark Davies]]         
 
| 3 = [[Tricia Pay]]         
 
| 3 = [[Tricia Pay]]         
−
| 6 = [[Laurence Killen]] | q3w = 3    
+
| 6 = [[Laurence Killen]] | q3w = 6    
 
| 7 = [[David Stanford]]     
 
| 7 = [[David Stanford]]     
 
| 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2     
 
| 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2     
 
}}
 
}}

Revision as of 21:36, 16 December 2014

They're back! Predictions for Series 71:

Bold players are still in the competition.

Datasets

Normal Seedings

Rank Name Wins Points
1 Dan McColm 9 1,051
2 Antoinette Ryan 9 941
3 Tricia Pay 8 954
4 Mark Davies 8 922
5 George Ford 9 922
6 Laurence Killen 9 892
7 David Stanford 7 689
8 Paul Worsley 6 707

Average Scores

All figures are correct to three decimal places.

Rank Name Wins Points
1 Dan McColm 116.778
3 Tricia Pay Up 1 106
2 Antoinette Ryan Down 1 104.556
4 Mark Davies 102.444
5 George Ford 102.444
6 Laurence Killen 99.111
8 Paul Worsley Up 1 88.375
7 David Stanford Down 1 76.556

Total Prelim Max Available

Paul Worsley only played seven games, his score has been multiplied by (8 ÷ 7), and has been rounded to zero decimal places.

Rank Name Wins Points
2 Antoinette Ryan Up 1 1,093
7 David Stanford Down 5 1,035
4 Mark Davies Up 1 1,030
8 Paul Worsley Up 4 1,030
1 Dan McColm Down 4 1,026
6 Laurence Killen 1,020
3 Tricia Pay Down 4 1,016
5 George Ford Down 3 988

Percentage Of Max Gained

All figures are correct to three decimal places.

Rank Name Wins Points
1 Dan McColm 91.710%
3 Tricia Pay Up 1 83.538%
5 George Ford Up 2 83.063%
4 Mark Davies 80.035%
6 Laurence Killen Up 1 77.836%
2 Antoinette Ryan Down 4 77.512%
8 Paul Worsley Up 1 69.246%
7 David Stanford Down 1 59.602%

Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Normal and Percentage of Max

Normal Percentage Name d d x d
1 1 Dan McColm 0 0
2 6 Antionette Ryan 4 16
3 2 Tricia Pay 1 1
4 4 Mark Davies 0 0
5 3 George Ford 2 4
6 5 Lawrence Killen 1 1
7 8 David Stanford 1 1
8 7 Paul Worsley 1 1
8 COUNT 1 - ((6 x 24))/(8 x ((8 x 8) - 1))) = 0.714 SUM 24

There is a strong positive correlation between the normal seeds and the seeds adjudged by the percentage of the maximum gained. On a scatter graph with a linear trendline, those below it are, in theory, better than their seed suggests, and vice versa: McColm, Pay, Davies, Ford, and Killen are underrated; Worsley is correctly rated; Ryan and Stanford are overrated.

Predictions

Hypotheses

Before the finals

Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) Dan McColm (1)
vs
Tricia Pay (3)
George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4)
Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) Tricia Pay (3) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
The winner of each game is displayed in bold.

After the quarter finals

Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) Dan McColm (1)
vs
Laurence Killen (6)
George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4)
Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
The winner of each game is displayed in bold.

Actuality

Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5)
George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4)
Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
The winner of each game is displayed in bold.
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