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Difference between revisions of "User:The Doctor/Series 71 Predictions"
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===Normal Seedings=== | ===Normal Seedings=== | ||
{{Seed table}} | {{Seed table}} | ||
| − | {{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] | | + | {{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] |10|1,174|w}} |
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] |9|941|w}} | {{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] |9|941|w}} | ||
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |8|954}} | {{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |8|954}} | ||
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] |8|922}} | {{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] |8|922}} | ||
| − | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] |9| | + | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] |9|994}} |
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] |9|892|w}} | {{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] |9|892|w}} | ||
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]] |7|689}} | {{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]] |7|689}} | ||
| Line 18: | Line 18: | ||
All figures are correct to three decimal places. | All figures are correct to three decimal places. | ||
{{Seed table}} | {{Seed table}} | ||
| − | {{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] || | + | {{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] ||117.4|w}} |
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |Up 1|106}} | {{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |Up 1|106}} | ||
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] |Down 1|104.556|w}} | {{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] |Down 1|104.556|w}} | ||
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] ||102.444}} | {{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] ||102.444}} | ||
| − | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] || | + | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] ||99.4}} |
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] ||99.111|w}} | {{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] ||99.111|w}} | ||
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]] |Up 1|88.375}} | {{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]] |Up 1|88.375}} | ||
| Line 42: | Line 42: | ||
All figures are correct to three decimal places. | All figures are correct to three decimal places. | ||
{{Seed table}} | {{Seed table}} | ||
| − | {{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] || | + | {{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] ||92.441%|w}} |
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |Up 1|83.538%}} | {{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |Up 1|83.538%}} | ||
| − | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] |Up 2| | + | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] |Up 2|80.616%}} |
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] ||80.035%}} | {{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] ||80.035%}} | ||
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] |Up 1|77.836%|w}} | {{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] |Up 1|77.836%|w}} | ||
| Line 141: | Line 141: | ||
| 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2 | | 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2 | ||
}} | }} | ||
| − | + | ====After the semi finals==== | |
| + | {{finals progress | ||
| + | | 1 = [[Dan McColm]] | q1w = 1 | s1w = 1 | fw = 1 | ||
| + | | 8 = [[Paul Worsley]] | ||
| + | | 5 = [[George Ford]] | q4w = 5 | ||
| + | | 4 = [[Mark Davies]] | ||
| + | | 3 = [[Tricia Pay]] | ||
| + | | 6 = [[Laurence Killen]] | q3w = 6 | s2w = 6 | ||
| + | | 7 = [[David Stanford]] | ||
| + | | 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2 | ||
| + | }} | ||
===Actuality=== | ===Actuality=== | ||
{{finals progress | {{finals progress | ||
| − | | 1 = [[Dan McColm]] | q1w = 1 | + | | 1 = [[Dan McColm]] | q1w = 1 | s1w = 1 |
| 8 = [[Paul Worsley]] | | 8 = [[Paul Worsley]] | ||
| 5 = [[George Ford]] | q4w = 5 | | 5 = [[George Ford]] | q4w = 5 | ||
Revision as of 18:06, 17 December 2014
They're back! Predictions for Series 71:
Bold players are still in the competition.
Contents
Datasets
Normal Seedings
| Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan McColm | 10 | 1,174 |
| 2 | Antoinette Ryan | 9 | 941 |
| 3 | Tricia Pay | 8 | 954 |
| 4 | Mark Davies | 8 | 922 |
| 5 | George Ford | 9 | 994 |
| 6 | Laurence Killen | 9 | 892 |
| 7 | David Stanford | 7 | 689 |
| 8 | Paul Worsley | 6 | 707 |
Average Scores
All figures are correct to three decimal places.
| Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan McColm | 117.4 | |
| 3 | Tricia Pay | Up 1 | 106 |
| 2 | Antoinette Ryan | Down 1 | 104.556 |
| 4 | Mark Davies | 102.444 | |
| 5 | George Ford | 99.4 | |
| 6 | Laurence Killen | 99.111 | |
| 8 | Paul Worsley | Up 1 | 88.375 |
| 7 | David Stanford | Down 1 | 76.556 |
Total Prelim Max Available
Paul Worsley only played seven games, his score has been multiplied by (8 ÷ 7), and has been rounded to zero decimal places.
| Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Antoinette Ryan | Up 1 | 1,093 |
| 7 | David Stanford | Down 5 | 1,035 |
| 4 | Mark Davies | Up 1 | 1,030 |
| 8 | Paul Worsley | Up 4 | 1,030 |
| 1 | Dan McColm | Down 4 | 1,026 |
| 6 | Laurence Killen | 1,020 | |
| 3 | Tricia Pay | Down 4 | 1,016 |
| 5 | George Ford | Down 3 | 988 |
Percentage Of Max Gained
All figures are correct to three decimal places.
| Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan McColm | 92.441% | |
| 3 | Tricia Pay | Up 1 | 83.538% |
| 5 | George Ford | Up 2 | 80.616% |
| 4 | Mark Davies | 80.035% | |
| 6 | Laurence Killen | Up 1 | 77.836% |
| 2 | Antoinette Ryan | Down 4 | 77.512% |
| 8 | Paul Worsley | Up 1 | 69.246% |
| 7 | David Stanford | Down 1 | 59.602% |
Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Normal and Percentage of Max
| Normal | Percentage | Name | d | d x d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dan McColm | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | Antoinette Ryan | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | 2 | Tricia Pay | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mark Davies | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 3 | George Ford | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | Laurence Killen | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | 8 | David Stanford | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | 7 | Paul Worsley | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | COUNT | 1 - ((6 x 24))/(8 x ((8 x 8) - 1))) = 0.714 | SUM | 24 |
There is a strong positive correlation between the normal seeds and the seeds adjudged by the percentage of the maximum gained. On a scatter graph with a linear trendline, those below it are, in theory, better than their seed suggests, and vice versa: McColm, Pay, Davies, Ford, and Killen are underrated; Worsley is correctly rated; Ryan and Stanford are overrated.
Predictions
Hypotheses
Before the finals
| Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Tricia Pay (3) |
| George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
| Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Tricia Pay (3) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
| David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
After the quarter finals
| Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Laurence Killen (6) |
| George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
| Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
| David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
After the semi finals
| Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Laurence Killen (6) |
| George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
| Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
| David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
Actuality
| Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | |
| George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
| Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
| David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
