Due to persistent vandalism, account creation has been suspended. If you would like an account, please contact Charlie Reams on Apterous.
Difference between revisions of "User:The Doctor/Series 71 Predictions"
From Countdown
The Doctor (talk | contribs) m (→Percentage Of Max Gained) |
The Doctor (talk | contribs) m (→Total Prelim Max Available) |
||
| Line 34: | Line 34: | ||
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] |Up 1|1,093|w}} | {{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] |Up 1|1,093|w}} | ||
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]] |Down 5|1,035}} | {{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]] |Down 5|1,035}} | ||
| − | {{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] |Up 1|1,030 | + | {{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] |Up 1|1,030}} |
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]] |Up 4|1,030}} | {{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]] |Up 4|1,030}} | ||
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] |Down 4|1,026|w}} | {{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] |Down 4|1,026|w}} | ||
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] ||1,020|w}} | {{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] ||1,020|w}} | ||
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |Down 4|1,016}} | {{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |Down 4|1,016}} | ||
| − | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] |Down 3|988 | + | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] |Down 3|988}} |
{{seed table end}} | {{seed table end}} | ||
| + | |||
===Percentage Of Max Gained=== | ===Percentage Of Max Gained=== | ||
All figures are correct to three decimal places. | All figures are correct to three decimal places. | ||
Revision as of 22:50, 17 December 2014
They're back! Predictions for Series 71:
Bold players are still in the competition.
Contents
Datasets
Normal Seedings
| Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan McColm | 10 | 1,174 |
| 2 | Antoinette Ryan | 9 | 941 |
| 3 | Tricia Pay | 8 | 954 |
| 4 | Mark Davies | 8 | 922 |
| 5 | George Ford | 9 | 999 |
| 6 | Laurence Killen | 9 | 892 |
| 7 | David Stanford | 7 | 689 |
| 8 | Paul Worsley | 6 | 707 |
Average Scores
All figures are correct to three decimal places.
| Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan McColm | 117.4 | |
| 3 | Tricia Pay | Up 1 | 106 |
| 2 | Antoinette Ryan | Down 1 | 104.556 |
| 4 | Mark Davies | 102.444 | |
| 5 | George Ford | 99.9 | |
| 6 | Laurence Killen | 99.111 | |
| 8 | Paul Worsley | Up 1 | 88.375 |
| 7 | David Stanford | Down 1 | 76.556 |
Total Prelim Max Available
Paul Worsley only played seven games, his score has been multiplied by (8 ÷ 7), and has been rounded to zero decimal places.
| Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Antoinette Ryan | Up 1 | 1,093 |
| 7 | David Stanford | Down 5 | 1,035 |
| 4 | Mark Davies | Up 1 | 1,030 |
| 8 | Paul Worsley | Up 4 | 1,030 |
| 1 | Dan McColm | Down 4 | 1,026 |
| 6 | Laurence Killen | 1,020 | |
| 3 | Tricia Pay | Down 4 | 1,016 |
| 5 | George Ford | Down 3 | 988 |
Percentage Of Max Gained
All figures are correct to three decimal places.
| Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan McColm | 92.441% | |
| 3 | Tricia Pay | Up 1 | 83.538% |
| 5 | George Ford | Up 2 | 81.022% |
| 4 | Mark Davies | 80.035% | |
| 6 | Laurence Killen | Up 1 | 77.836% |
| 2 | Antoinette Ryan | Down 4 | 77.512% |
| 8 | Paul Worsley | Up 1 | 69.246% |
| 7 | David Stanford | Down 1 | 59.602% |
Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Normal and Percentage of Max
| Normal | Percentage | Name | d | d x d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dan McColm | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | Antoinette Ryan | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | 2 | Tricia Pay | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mark Davies | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 3 | George Ford | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | Laurence Killen | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | 8 | David Stanford | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | 7 | Paul Worsley | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | COUNT | 1 - ((6 x 24))/(8 x ((8 x 8) - 1))) = 0.714 | SUM | 24 |
There is a strong positive correlation between the normal seeds and the seeds adjudged by the percentage of the maximum gained. On a scatter graph with a linear trendline, those below it are, in theory, better than their seed suggests, and vice versa: McColm, Pay, Davies, Ford, and Killen are underrated; Worsley is correctly rated; Ryan and Stanford are overrated.
Predictions
Hypotheses
Before the finals
| Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Tricia Pay (3) |
| George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
| Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Tricia Pay (3) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
| David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
After the quarter finals
| Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Laurence Killen (6) |
| George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
| Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
| David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
After the semi finals
| Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Laurence Killen (6) |
| George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
| Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
| David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
Actuality
| Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | |
| George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
| Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
| David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
