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Difference between revisions of "User:The Doctor/Series 71 Predictions"

From Countdown
m (Sorry this is probably intrusive but George's total was 999 not 994)
 
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{{Seed table}}
 
{{Seed table}}
 
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]]          |10|1,174|w}}
 
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]]          |10|1,174|w}}
−
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]    |9|941|w}}
+
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]    |10|1,043|w}}
 
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]          |8|954}}
 
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]          |8|954}}
 
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]        |8|922}}
 
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]        |8|922}}
 
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]        |9|999}}
 
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]        |9|999}}
−
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    |9|892|w}}
+
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    |9|980}}
 
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]]      |7|689}}
 
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]]      |7|689}}
 
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]]        |6|707}}
 
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]]        |6|707}}
Line 21: Line 21:
 
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]]          ||117.4|w}}
 
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]]          ||117.4|w}}
 
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]          |Up 1|106}}
 
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]          |Up 1|106}}
−
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]    |Down 1|104.556|w}}
+
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]    |Down 1|104.3|w}}
 
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]        ||102.444}}
 
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]        ||102.444}}
−
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]        ||99.4}}
+
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]        ||99.9}}
−
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    ||99.111|w}}
+
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    ||98}}
 
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]]        |Up 1|88.375}}
 
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]]        |Up 1|88.375}}
 
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]]      |Down 1|76.556}}
 
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]]      |Down 1|76.556}}
 
{{seed table end}}
 
{{seed table end}}
 +
 
===Total Prelim Max Available===
 
===Total Prelim Max Available===
 
Paul Worsley only played seven games, his score has been multiplied by (8 ÷ 7), and has been rounded to zero decimal places.
 
Paul Worsley only played seven games, his score has been multiplied by (8 ÷ 7), and has been rounded to zero decimal places.
Line 33: Line 34:
 
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]    |Up 1|1,093|w}}
 
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]    |Up 1|1,093|w}}
 
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]]      |Down 5|1,035}}
 
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]]      |Down 5|1,035}}
−
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]        |Up 1|1,030|w}}
+
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]        |Up 1|1,030}}
 
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]]        |Up 4|1,030}}
 
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]]        |Up 4|1,030}}
 
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]]          |Down 4|1,026|w}}
 
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]]          |Down 4|1,026|w}}
 
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    ||1,020|w}}
 
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    ||1,020|w}}
 
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]          |Down 4|1,016}}
 
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]          |Down 4|1,016}}
−
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]        |Down 3|988|w}}
+
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]        |Down 3|988}}
 
{{seed table end}}
 
{{seed table end}}
 +
 
===Percentage Of Max Gained===
 
===Percentage Of Max Gained===
 
All figures are correct to three decimal places.
 
All figures are correct to three decimal places.
Line 45: Line 47:
 
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]]          ||92.441%|w}}
 
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]]          ||92.441%|w}}
 
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]          |Up 1|83.538%}}
 
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]]          |Up 1|83.538%}}
−
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]        |Up 2|80.616%}}
+
{{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]]        |Up 2|81.022%}}
 
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]        ||80.035%}}
 
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]]        ||80.035%}}
−
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    |Up 1|77.836%|w}}
+
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]    |Down 3|77.489%|w}}
−
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]]    |Down 4|77.512%|w}}
+
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]]    ||76.682%}}
 
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]]        |Up 1|69.246%}}
 
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]]        |Up 1|69.246%}}
 
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]]      |Down 1|59.602%}}
 
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]]      |Down 1|59.602%}}
 
{{seed table end}}
 
{{seed table end}}
 +
 
===Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Normal and Percentage of Max===
 
===Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Normal and Percentage of Max===
 
{| class="episode_table"
 
{| class="episode_table"
Line 68: Line 71:
 
|-
 
|-
 
! 2
 
! 2
−
! 6
+
! 5
 
! [[Antoinette Ryan]]
 
! [[Antoinette Ryan]]
−
! 4
+
! 3
−
! 16
+
! 9
 
|-
 
|-
 
! 3
 
! 3
Line 92: Line 95:
 
|-
 
|-
 
! 6
 
! 6
−
! 5
+
! 6
 
! [[Laurence Killen]]
 
! [[Laurence Killen]]
−
! 1
+
! 0
−
! 1
+
! 0
 
|-
 
|-
 
! 7
 
! 7
Line 111: Line 114:
 
! 8
 
! 8
 
! COUNT
 
! COUNT
−
! 1 - ((6 x 24))/(8 x ((8 x 8) - 1))) = 0.714
+
! 1 - ((6 x 24))/(8 x ((8 x 8) - 1))) = 0.809
 
! SUM
 
! SUM
 
! 24
 
! 24
 
|}
 
|}
  
−
There is a strong positive correlation between the normal seeds and the seeds adjudged by the percentage of the maximum gained. On a scatter graph with a linear trendline, those below it are, in theory, better than their seed suggests, and vice versa: McColm, Pay, Davies, Ford, and Killen are underrated; Worsley is correctly rated; Ryan and Stanford are overrated.
+
There is a strong positive correlation between the normal seeds and the seeds adjudged by the percentage of the maximum gained. On a scatter graph with a linear trendline, those below it are, in theory, better than their seed suggests, and vice versa: McColm, Pay, Davies, Ford, and Worsley are underrated; Ryan, Killen and Stanford are overrated.
  
 
==Predictions==
 
==Predictions==
Line 149: Line 152:
 
| 4 = [[Mark Davies]]         
 
| 4 = [[Mark Davies]]         
 
| 3 = [[Tricia Pay]]   
 
| 3 = [[Tricia Pay]]   
−
| 6 = [[Laurence Killen]] | q3w = 6 | s2w = 6
+
| 6 = [[Laurence Killen]] | q3w = 6  
 
| 7 = [[David Stanford]]     
 
| 7 = [[David Stanford]]     
−
| 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2  
+
| 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2 | s2w = 2 
 
}}
 
}}
 
===Actuality===
 
===Actuality===
Line 162: Line 165:
 
| 6 = [[Laurence Killen]] | q3w = 6     
 
| 6 = [[Laurence Killen]] | q3w = 6     
 
| 7 = [[David Stanford]]     
 
| 7 = [[David Stanford]]     
−
| 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2  
+
| 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2 | s2w = 2 
 
}}
 
}}

Latest revision as of 21:52, 18 December 2014

They're back! Predictions for Series 71:

Bold players are still in the competition.

Datasets

Normal Seedings

Rank Name Wins Points
1 Dan McColm 10 1,174
2 Antoinette Ryan 10 1,043
3 Tricia Pay 8 954
4 Mark Davies 8 922
5 George Ford 9 999
6 Laurence Killen 9 980
7 David Stanford 7 689
8 Paul Worsley 6 707

Average Scores

All figures are correct to three decimal places.

Rank Name Wins Points
1 Dan McColm 117.4
3 Tricia Pay Up 1 106
2 Antoinette Ryan Down 1 104.3
4 Mark Davies 102.444
5 George Ford 99.9
6 Laurence Killen 98
8 Paul Worsley Up 1 88.375
7 David Stanford Down 1 76.556

Total Prelim Max Available

Paul Worsley only played seven games, his score has been multiplied by (8 ÷ 7), and has been rounded to zero decimal places.

Rank Name Wins Points
2 Antoinette Ryan Up 1 1,093
7 David Stanford Down 5 1,035
4 Mark Davies Up 1 1,030
8 Paul Worsley Up 4 1,030
1 Dan McColm Down 4 1,026
6 Laurence Killen 1,020
3 Tricia Pay Down 4 1,016
5 George Ford Down 3 988

Percentage Of Max Gained

All figures are correct to three decimal places.

Rank Name Wins Points
1 Dan McColm 92.441%
3 Tricia Pay Up 1 83.538%
5 George Ford Up 2 81.022%
4 Mark Davies 80.035%
2 Antoinette Ryan Down 3 77.489%
6 Laurence Killen 76.682%
8 Paul Worsley Up 1 69.246%
7 David Stanford Down 1 59.602%

Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Normal and Percentage of Max

Normal Percentage Name d d x d
1 1 Dan McColm 0 0
2 5 Antoinette Ryan 3 9
3 2 Tricia Pay 1 1
4 4 Mark Davies 0 0
5 3 George Ford 2 4
6 6 Laurence Killen 0 0
7 8 David Stanford 1 1
8 7 Paul Worsley 1 1
8 COUNT 1 - ((6 x 24))/(8 x ((8 x 8) - 1))) = 0.809 SUM 24

There is a strong positive correlation between the normal seeds and the seeds adjudged by the percentage of the maximum gained. On a scatter graph with a linear trendline, those below it are, in theory, better than their seed suggests, and vice versa: McColm, Pay, Davies, Ford, and Worsley are underrated; Ryan, Killen and Stanford are overrated.

Predictions

Hypotheses

Before the finals

Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) Dan McColm (1)
vs
Tricia Pay (3)
George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4)
Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) Tricia Pay (3) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
The winner of each game is displayed in bold.

After the quarter finals

Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) Dan McColm (1)
vs
Laurence Killen (6)
George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4)
Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
The winner of each game is displayed in bold.

After the semi finals

Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) Dan McColm (1)
vs
Antoinette Ryan (2)
George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4)
Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
The winner of each game is displayed in bold.

Actuality

Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) Dan McColm (1)
vs
Antoinette Ryan (2)
George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4)
Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2)
The winner of each game is displayed in bold.
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