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Difference between revisions of "User:The Doctor/Series 71 Predictions"
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{{Seed table}} | {{Seed table}} | ||
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] |10|1,174|w}} | {{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] |10|1,174|w}} | ||
− | {{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] | | + | {{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] |10|1,043|w}} |
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |8|954}} | {{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |8|954}} | ||
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] |8|922}} | {{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] |8|922}} | ||
− | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] |9| | + | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] |9|999}} |
− | {{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] |9| | + | {{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] |9|980}} |
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]] |7|689}} | {{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]] |7|689}} | ||
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]] |6|707}} | {{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]] |6|707}} | ||
{{Seed table end}} | {{Seed table end}} | ||
+ | |||
===Average Scores=== | ===Average Scores=== | ||
All figures are correct to three decimal places. | All figures are correct to three decimal places. | ||
Line 20: | Line 21: | ||
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] ||117.4|w}} | {{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] ||117.4|w}} | ||
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |Up 1|106}} | {{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |Up 1|106}} | ||
− | {{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] |Down 1|104. | + | {{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] |Down 1|104.3|w}} |
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] ||102.444}} | {{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] ||102.444}} | ||
− | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] ||99. | + | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] ||99.9}} |
− | {{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] || | + | {{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] ||98}} |
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]] |Up 1|88.375}} | {{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]] |Up 1|88.375}} | ||
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]] |Down 1|76.556}} | {{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]] |Down 1|76.556}} | ||
{{seed table end}} | {{seed table end}} | ||
+ | |||
===Total Prelim Max Available=== | ===Total Prelim Max Available=== | ||
Paul Worsley only played seven games, his score has been multiplied by (8 ÷ 7), and has been rounded to zero decimal places. | Paul Worsley only played seven games, his score has been multiplied by (8 ÷ 7), and has been rounded to zero decimal places. | ||
Line 32: | Line 34: | ||
{{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] |Up 1|1,093|w}} | {{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] |Up 1|1,093|w}} | ||
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]] |Down 5|1,035}} | {{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]] |Down 5|1,035}} | ||
− | {{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] |Up 1|1,030 | + | {{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] |Up 1|1,030}} |
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]] |Up 4|1,030}} | {{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]] |Up 4|1,030}} | ||
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] |Down 4|1,026|w}} | {{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] |Down 4|1,026|w}} | ||
{{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] ||1,020|w}} | {{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] ||1,020|w}} | ||
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |Down 4|1,016}} | {{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |Down 4|1,016}} | ||
− | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] |Down 3|988 | + | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] |Down 3|988}} |
{{seed table end}} | {{seed table end}} | ||
+ | |||
===Percentage Of Max Gained=== | ===Percentage Of Max Gained=== | ||
All figures are correct to three decimal places. | All figures are correct to three decimal places. | ||
Line 44: | Line 47: | ||
{{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] ||92.441%|w}} | {{Seed|1 |[[Dan McColm]] ||92.441%|w}} | ||
{{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |Up 1|83.538%}} | {{Seed|3 |[[Tricia Pay]] |Up 1|83.538%}} | ||
− | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] |Up 2| | + | {{Seed|5 |[[George Ford]] |Up 2|81.022%}} |
{{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] ||80.035%}} | {{Seed|4 |[[Mark Davies]] ||80.035%}} | ||
− | {{Seed| | + | {{Seed|2 |[[Antoinette Ryan]] |Down 3|77.489%|w}} |
− | {{Seed| | + | {{Seed|6 |[[Laurence Killen]] ||76.682%}} |
{{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]] |Up 1|69.246%}} | {{Seed|8 |[[Paul Worsley]] |Up 1|69.246%}} | ||
{{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]] |Down 1|59.602%}} | {{Seed|7 |[[David Stanford]] |Down 1|59.602%}} | ||
{{seed table end}} | {{seed table end}} | ||
+ | |||
===Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Normal and Percentage of Max=== | ===Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Normal and Percentage of Max=== | ||
{| class="episode_table" | {| class="episode_table" | ||
Line 67: | Line 71: | ||
|- | |- | ||
! 2 | ! 2 | ||
− | ! | + | ! 5 |
! [[Antoinette Ryan]] | ! [[Antoinette Ryan]] | ||
− | ! | + | ! 3 |
− | ! | + | ! 9 |
|- | |- | ||
! 3 | ! 3 | ||
Line 91: | Line 95: | ||
|- | |- | ||
! 6 | ! 6 | ||
− | ! | + | ! 6 |
! [[Laurence Killen]] | ! [[Laurence Killen]] | ||
− | ! | + | ! 0 |
− | ! | + | ! 0 |
|- | |- | ||
! 7 | ! 7 | ||
Line 110: | Line 114: | ||
! 8 | ! 8 | ||
! COUNT | ! COUNT | ||
− | ! 1 - ((6 x 24))/(8 x ((8 x 8) - 1))) = 0. | + | ! 1 - ((6 x 24))/(8 x ((8 x 8) - 1))) = 0.809 |
! SUM | ! SUM | ||
! 24 | ! 24 | ||
|} | |} | ||
− | There is a strong positive correlation between the normal seeds and the seeds adjudged by the percentage of the maximum gained. On a scatter graph with a linear trendline, those below it are, in theory, better than their seed suggests, and vice versa: McColm, Pay, Davies, Ford, and | + | There is a strong positive correlation between the normal seeds and the seeds adjudged by the percentage of the maximum gained. On a scatter graph with a linear trendline, those below it are, in theory, better than their seed suggests, and vice versa: McColm, Pay, Davies, Ford, and Worsley are underrated; Ryan, Killen and Stanford are overrated. |
==Predictions== | ==Predictions== | ||
Line 148: | Line 152: | ||
| 4 = [[Mark Davies]] | | 4 = [[Mark Davies]] | ||
| 3 = [[Tricia Pay]] | | 3 = [[Tricia Pay]] | ||
− | | 6 = [[Laurence Killen]] | q3w | + | | 6 = [[Laurence Killen]] | q3w = 6 |
| 7 = [[David Stanford]] | | 7 = [[David Stanford]] | ||
− | | 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2 | + | | 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2 | s2w = 2 |
}} | }} | ||
===Actuality=== | ===Actuality=== | ||
Line 161: | Line 165: | ||
| 6 = [[Laurence Killen]] | q3w = 6 | | 6 = [[Laurence Killen]] | q3w = 6 | ||
| 7 = [[David Stanford]] | | 7 = [[David Stanford]] | ||
− | | 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2 | + | | 2 = [[Antoinette Ryan]] | q2w = 2 | s2w = 2 |
}} | }} |
Latest revision as of 21:52, 18 December 2014
They're back! Predictions for Series 71:
Bold players are still in the competition.
Contents
Datasets
Normal Seedings
Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Dan McColm | 10 | 1,174 |
2 | Antoinette Ryan | 10 | 1,043 |
3 | Tricia Pay | 8 | 954 |
4 | Mark Davies | 8 | 922 |
5 | George Ford | 9 | 999 |
6 | Laurence Killen | 9 | 980 |
7 | David Stanford | 7 | 689 |
8 | Paul Worsley | 6 | 707 |
Average Scores
All figures are correct to three decimal places.
Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Dan McColm | 117.4 | |
3 | Tricia Pay | Up 1 | 106 |
2 | Antoinette Ryan | Down 1 | 104.3 |
4 | Mark Davies | 102.444 | |
5 | George Ford | 99.9 | |
6 | Laurence Killen | 98 | |
8 | Paul Worsley | Up 1 | 88.375 |
7 | David Stanford | Down 1 | 76.556 |
Total Prelim Max Available
Paul Worsley only played seven games, his score has been multiplied by (8 ÷ 7), and has been rounded to zero decimal places.
Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
---|---|---|---|
2 | Antoinette Ryan | Up 1 | 1,093 |
7 | David Stanford | Down 5 | 1,035 |
4 | Mark Davies | Up 1 | 1,030 |
8 | Paul Worsley | Up 4 | 1,030 |
1 | Dan McColm | Down 4 | 1,026 |
6 | Laurence Killen | 1,020 | |
3 | Tricia Pay | Down 4 | 1,016 |
5 | George Ford | Down 3 | 988 |
Percentage Of Max Gained
All figures are correct to three decimal places.
Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Dan McColm | 92.441% | |
3 | Tricia Pay | Up 1 | 83.538% |
5 | George Ford | Up 2 | 81.022% |
4 | Mark Davies | 80.035% | |
2 | Antoinette Ryan | Down 3 | 77.489% |
6 | Laurence Killen | 76.682% | |
8 | Paul Worsley | Up 1 | 69.246% |
7 | David Stanford | Down 1 | 59.602% |
Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Normal and Percentage of Max
Normal | Percentage | Name | d | d x d |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | Dan McColm | 0 | 0 |
2 | 5 | Antoinette Ryan | 3 | 9 |
3 | 2 | Tricia Pay | 1 | 1 |
4 | 4 | Mark Davies | 0 | 0 |
5 | 3 | George Ford | 2 | 4 |
6 | 6 | Laurence Killen | 0 | 0 |
7 | 8 | David Stanford | 1 | 1 |
8 | 7 | Paul Worsley | 1 | 1 |
8 | COUNT | 1 - ((6 x 24))/(8 x ((8 x 8) - 1))) = 0.809 | SUM | 24 |
There is a strong positive correlation between the normal seeds and the seeds adjudged by the percentage of the maximum gained. On a scatter graph with a linear trendline, those below it are, in theory, better than their seed suggests, and vice versa: McColm, Pay, Davies, Ford, and Worsley are underrated; Ryan, Killen and Stanford are overrated.
Predictions
Hypotheses
Before the finals
Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Tricia Pay (3) |
George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Tricia Pay (3) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
After the quarter finals
Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Laurence Killen (6) |
George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
After the semi finals
Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
Actuality
Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |