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User:The Doctor/Series 71 Predictions
They're back! Predictions for Series 71:
Bold players are still in the competition.
Contents
Datasets
Normal Seedings
| Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan McColm | 10 | 1,174 |
| 2 | Antoinette Ryan | 9 | 941 |
| 3 | Tricia Pay | 8 | 954 |
| 4 | Mark Davies | 8 | 922 |
| 5 | George Ford | 9 | 999 |
| 6 | Laurence Killen | 9 | 892 |
| 7 | David Stanford | 7 | 689 |
| 8 | Paul Worsley | 6 | 707 |
Average Scores
All figures are correct to three decimal places.
| Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan McColm | 117.4 | |
| 3 | Tricia Pay | Up 1 | 106 |
| 2 | Antoinette Ryan | Down 1 | 104.556 |
| 4 | Mark Davies | 102.444 | |
| 5 | George Ford | 99.4 | |
| 6 | Laurence Killen | 99.111 | |
| 8 | Paul Worsley | Up 1 | 88.375 |
| 7 | David Stanford | Down 1 | 76.556 |
Total Prelim Max Available
Paul Worsley only played seven games, his score has been multiplied by (8 ÷ 7), and has been rounded to zero decimal places.
| Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Antoinette Ryan | Up 1 | 1,093 |
| 7 | David Stanford | Down 5 | 1,035 |
| 4 | Mark Davies | Up 1 | 1,030 |
| 8 | Paul Worsley | Up 4 | 1,030 |
| 1 | Dan McColm | Down 4 | 1,026 |
| 6 | Laurence Killen | 1,020 | |
| 3 | Tricia Pay | Down 4 | 1,016 |
| 5 | George Ford | Down 3 | 988 |
Percentage Of Max Gained
All figures are correct to three decimal places.
| Rank | Name | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan McColm | 92.441% | |
| 3 | Tricia Pay | Up 1 | 83.538% |
| 5 | George Ford | Up 2 | 80.616% |
| 4 | Mark Davies | 80.035% | |
| 6 | Laurence Killen | Up 1 | 77.836% |
| 2 | Antoinette Ryan | Down 4 | 77.512% |
| 8 | Paul Worsley | Up 1 | 69.246% |
| 7 | David Stanford | Down 1 | 59.602% |
Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Normal and Percentage of Max
| Normal | Percentage | Name | d | d x d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dan McColm | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | Antoinette Ryan | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | 2 | Tricia Pay | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mark Davies | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 3 | George Ford | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | 5 | Laurence Killen | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | 8 | David Stanford | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | 7 | Paul Worsley | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | COUNT | 1 - ((6 x 24))/(8 x ((8 x 8) - 1))) = 0.714 | SUM | 24 |
There is a strong positive correlation between the normal seeds and the seeds adjudged by the percentage of the maximum gained. On a scatter graph with a linear trendline, those below it are, in theory, better than their seed suggests, and vice versa: McColm, Pay, Davies, Ford, and Killen are underrated; Worsley is correctly rated; Ryan and Stanford are overrated.
Predictions
Hypotheses
Before the finals
| Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Tricia Pay (3) |
| George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
| Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Tricia Pay (3) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
| David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
After the quarter finals
| Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Laurence Killen (6) |
| George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
| Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
| David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
After the semi finals
| Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | Dan McColm (1) vs Laurence Killen (6) |
| George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
| Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
| David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
Actuality
| Dan McColm (1) vs Paul Worsley (8) | Dan McColm (1) vs George Ford (5) | |
| George Ford (5) vs Mark Davies (4) | ||
| Tricia Pay (3) vs Laurence Killen (6) | Laurence Killen (6) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) | |
| David Stanford (7) vs Antoinette Ryan (2) |
